Anthropic is having a moment in the private markets; SpaceX could spoil the party

While much of the AI industry focuses on the rivalry between OpenAI and Anthropic, a distinct narrative is unfolding in the private secondary markets where investor momentum has sharply pivoted. According to Glen Anderson, president of investment bank Rainmaker Securities, demand for Anthropic shares has become insatiable, making it the “hardest stock to source.” This shift in sentiment, however, is now overshadowed by a larger force, as SpaceX’s imminent IPO is poised to test the public market’s appetite for large tech offerings, potentially complicating the plans of the AI frontrunners.

The contrast in market dynamics is stark. Anderson notes a complete absence of sellers for Anthropic shares, a situation he attributes partly to the company’s public standoff with the Department of Defense, which helped differentiate its brand from OpenAI. Conversely, OpenAI’s market is “not nearly as vibrant,” with shares trading at a valuation around $765 billion, a noticeable discount from its recent $852 billion primary-round valuation. This disparity is further reflected in banking practices; firms like Goldman Sachs are reportedly charging clients customary fees for access to Anthropic shares while offering OpenAI equity to high-net-worth clients without carry fees, signaling a clear difference in perceived demand.

The primary challenge for both AI firms is now timing. SpaceX, which Anderson describes as a consistently performing asset that avoided recent market corrections, has confidentially filed for its IPO. By going first, the aerospace giant stands to “soak up a lot of liquidity” from institutional investors. This creates a first-mover advantage that could leave less capital and more scrutiny for whoever follows. For Anthropic and OpenAI, both reportedly exploring public offerings, SpaceX’s move means the window for an optimal debut may be influenced more by Elon Musk’s timeline than by their own competitive positioning.

While the secondary market clearly favors Anthropic's narrative over OpenAI's for now, the most critical factor for both companies' future liquidity events is external: SpaceX's IPO will be the first major test of public market depth, and its performance will likely dictate the terms and timing for every other large-cap tech debut to follow.